No War, No Peace

Gaza’s Future at the Crossroads.

The UN Security Council is set to vote today on a US-drafted resolution establishing an international stabilization force in Gaza, now containing a last-minute and highly tentative reference to a future Palestinian state, included only after strong pressure from Arab governments.

Gaza, shattered by two years of conflict, is being shaped by rapidly shifting international proposals centered on physical division and externally managed stabilization. Newly revealed US military planning documents and diplomatic sources outline a significant proposal to partition Gaza into separate zones: a reconstruction-oriented “green zone” under Israeli and international military authority, and a devastated “red zone” left largely in ruins. This approach undermines earlier commitments to a durable political settlement and unified Palestinian self-rule, raising the likelihood of a prolonged, low-intensity conflict and a permanently fractured territory.

At the heart of the US plan is the deployment of foreign forces alongside Israeli troops in eastern Gaza, creating a semi-permanent division along the current Israeli-controlled “yellow line.” This would produce two distinct realities. The “green zone” would serve as the launchpad for reconstruction efforts and, planners hope, gradually attract civilians. Meanwhile, over two million Palestinians are crowded into the coastal “red zone,” where humanitarian needs are dire and destruction is most extensive. Comparisons to failed US strategies in Iraq and Afghanistan are difficult to ignore, for in both cases fortified “Green Zones” became symbols of isolation, disconnection from local populations, and an inability to stabilize the broader territory.

A central feature of this stabilization model is the proposed International Stabilization Force, or ISF, which is part of Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan. The US seeks a UN Security Council mandate for the ISF, yet securing troop commitments has already proven difficult. Early plans, described in classified Centcom documents and quickly dismissed by diplomats as “delusional,” envisioned a core deployment of European troops, up to 1,500 British and 1,000 French soldiers, to handle security and logistics. However, European governments, wary after long and costly missions in Iraq and Afghanistan and lacking political appetite, have shown little willingness to participate. As a result, the US is casting a wide net for potential contributors among NATO members and partners across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.

The ISF would be restricted to operating within the “green zone,” starting with a small presence and eventually expanding to as many as 20,000 troops. Crucially, they would not enter the “red zone,” where Hamas is reportedly reasserting control. Initial drafts suggested that foreign soldiers might “integrate” with Israeli forces to man crossings along the control line, a prospect that alarms potential troop contributors who fear being drawn into crossfire or being seen as complicit in an Israeli occupation.

The US envisions reconstruction as a long-term magnet that might drive voluntary relocation from the “red zone” to the “green zone,” gradually fostering reunification. Yet the reconstruction challenge is immense. More than 80 percent of Gaza’s buildings, including nearly all schools and hospitals, are damaged or destroyed. Israel continues to restrict vital aid and materials, including basic items such as tent poles, citing “dual-use” concerns. Without massive funding, which the US has signaled it will not provide, the reconstruction-as-unification strategy appears tenuous.

Trump’s plan describes a new Palestinian police force as Gaza’s eventual internal security structure, but current US planners envision only a small interim force of a few hundred recruits. Combined with scarce international troop commitments, no clear timeline for Israeli withdrawal, and insufficient financial backing, Gaza risks slipping into a prolonged condition described by mediators as “not war but not peace,” marked by entrenched occupation, stalled reconstruction, and the absence of meaningful Palestinian governance.

Developments in Turkey have further complicated the political landscape. The Istanbul chief prosecutor has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior Israeli officials, accusing them of genocide and crimes against humanity in Gaza. The list includes Defense Minister Israel Katz, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Army Chief Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir. The indictment cites, among other incidents, the bombing of the Turkish-built “Turkish-Palestinian Friendship Hospital.” Israel denounced the warrants as a political stunt, with Foreign Minister Gideon Saar insisting that Israel “contemptuously rejects” the move. This escalation follows Turkey’s decision to join South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice.

The ceasefire in Gaza initially brought relief, yet within a month the situation deteriorated sharply. While some hostages and detainees have been exchanged, sporadic Israeli strikes, reportedly responding to Hamas attacks, have killed more than 200 Palestinians, including children. Thousands of bodies remain beneath the rubble, and experts estimate that debris removal alone will take seven years. Meanwhile, aid flows remain critically inadequate because of Israeli registration requirements, and demolitions continue in Israeli-controlled areas. With more than 90 percent of schools destroyed, Gaza’s education system has collapsed, and many newborns are entering the world amid ruins, without access to functioning hospitals or shelters.

The prevailing fear is that Gaza is drifting toward a permanent “no war, no peace” limbo that will obstruct reconstruction and political progress. The ceasefire has postponed all fundamental political decisions, even as the US pushes for a UN resolution to authorize the ISF. This requires resolving complex questions about its mandate, troop composition, which will not include Turkey due to Israeli objections, its relationship to a Palestinian police force, and the terms of Israeli withdrawal.

Donald Trump wants to preserve the ceasefire and advance normalization between Israel and Arab states, yet meaningful progress depends on tangible improvements for Palestinians. International outrage that once fueled global mobilization is fading, and with it the pressure on Washington. Sustained public engagement is essential to hold Israel accountable to the ceasefire, ensure adequate humanitarian aid, and secure a path toward justice and lasting peace for Palestinians, Israelis and all affected communities.